Sales Price Forecast October 2026

October 23, 2026 by

Cooperative Coffees, Inc., Ed Canty

| No comments yet

Greetings Cooperative Coffees’ Green Buyers,

We have updated the Sales Price Forecast. You can view your roastery’s specific forecast here.

Default C Price Assumption

Since our last forecast, we have seen the Dec 2026 market range from $2.69 to $3.18.. So while the numbers below are staying the same, there is a great deal of volatility day-to-day.

$3.10 through Dec 2026 (staying the same)
$3.00 through March 2027 (staying the same)
$3.00 through July 2027 (staying the same)
$2.90 for any future months (staying the same)

Relevant Market Intelligence

Pressures pushing prices up ↑

- ICE arabica stocks remain exceptionally low (High Impact): These low stocks leave the market particularly sensitive to supply interruptions and short-covering. Traders are concerned that Brazilian coffee may not arrive in sufficient quantities before the December contract expires.
- El Niño and weather uncertainty (High Impact): The development of the 2027/28 Brazilian crop remains uncertain. While recent rainfall has been favorable, El Niño introduces the possibility of irregular precipitation and temperature extremes during critical stages of crop development. An unexpected deterioration could quickly challenge the market's increasingly optimistic production expectations
- Strengthening Brazilian real (Medium-High Impact):The appreciation of the Brazilian real against the US dollar has discouraged producer and exporter selling. A stronger real reduces local-currency revenue from dollar-denominated coffee sales, encouraging some exporters to delay sales in anticipation of better conditions. Reuters identified this as a major contributor to the recent rally.
- Quality concerns with Brazil's 2026 harvest (Medium Impact): Higher humidity has raised concerns about quality in some Brazilian coffees. Even if overall production volumes are strong, a lower proportion of exportable, exchange-grade coffee could tighten the effective supply available to buyers.
- Declining Arabica export volumes (Medium Impact): According to the ICO, global Arabica exports totaled 81.39 million bags during the 12 months ending August 2026, compared with 85.97 million bags during the preceding period. This approximately 5.3% decline illustrates the tightness that persisted despite increasing production.
- Technical buying and short-covering (Medium Impact): September's steep selloff left Arabica vulnerable to a technical rebound. Reuters reported that oversold conditions contributed to the recovery at the end of September. Low inventories can amplify price movements when speculative traders close short positions or rebuild long exposure.

Pressures pushing prices down ↓

- Larger Brazilian coffee production in 2026/27 (High Impact): Brazil's significantly larger harvest is the primary bearish fundamental. Increased Brazilian supply could improve global availability and eventually replenish depleted inventories.
- Favorable rainfall during Brazil's flowering period (High Impact): Rabobank's October 19 report highlights exceptionally favorable September rainfall in Brazil's major producing regions. These conditions are supporting flowering and vegetative growth, improving the outlook for 2027/28 production.
- Improving global coffee supply (Medium-High Impact): Favorable weather in Brazil, Vietnam and Indonesia is contributing to a broader expectation of improving supply. Rabobank describes a transition from shortages and climate risks toward potential surpluses and inventory rebuilding. The ICO reported August global exports of 12.58 million bags, versus 10.95 million in August 2025.
- Greater Robusta availability and potential substitution (Medium Impact): Vietnam's strong export performance and improving Robusta availability provide roasters with greater flexibility to adjust blends. This could reduce demand for certain Arabica qualities, although substitution is limited for specialty and washed Arabica programs.
- Prospective rebuilding of global inventories (Medium Impact): Larger crops and improving exports could gradually rebuild commercial and certified stocks. This would remove a significant source of price support. However, this is primarily an expectation rather than an established recovery in ICE-certified Arabica inventories