Greetings Cooperative Coffees’ Green Buyers,
We have updated the Sales Price Forecast among much volatility since last month's assumptions. You can view your roastery’s specific forecast here.
Although tariffs on all imports were removed starting last December, our collective costs still include tariffs paid on inventory imported prior to that date. To date, Cooperative Coffees has paid USD $1,315,724 in tariffs. The remaining tariff burden on unsold inventory totals USD $47,317 which equates to an average additional cost of $0.13/lb on those items.
We received our first tariff refund payment of USD $345,003 at the end of June and immediately dispersed it to members at the percentage of their total tariff amount owed. We will continue to pass these funds on to members as we receive them. Only after members are fully paid back will we address refunding nonMember customers.
Default C Price Assumption
In early July, the market saw its largest single-day move in 30 years. Arabica futures jumped roughly 16% in one session, the biggest percentage gain recorded this century, followed by sharp swings in both directions over the following days. This came on top of several weeks of unusually wide weekly swings (30-40 cents) through June. For the past week the market has been a little more stable; centering around the C price assumptions we are making below.
3.25 through Sept 2026 (was 2.80)
3.10 through March 2026 (was 2.80)
$3.00 through July 2027 (was 2.60)
$2.90 for any future months (was 2.50)
Relevant Market Intelligence
Pressures pushing prices up ↑
Tight washed Arabica availability. High-quality coffees from Colombia and Peru remain difficult and expensive to replace.
Brazil harvest delays. Frequent rainfall continues to slow harvesting, drying, and processing, delaying the arrival of new crop coffee.
Strong commercial demand for nearby supplies. Physical buyers continue to compete for prompt shipment coffees.
Fund short covering. Investment funds have aggressively reduced bearish positions, adding upward momentum to prices.
Tight nearby market structure. Higher premiums for nearby contracts indicate continued concern over immediate supply availability.
Volatility attracts momentum traders. Large daily price swings continue to encourage speculative participation.
Prices remain below the 2025 record highs. Some market participants believe there is room for further upside if nearby tightness persists.
Pressures pushing prices down ↓
No major weather threat in Brazil. Frost risk remains low, and there is no indication of a significant production loss.
Brazilian harvest continues to progress. As weather improves, larger volumes of coffee should begin reaching the market, easing nearby tightness.
Recent rally driven largely by short covering. Much of the price increase reflects speculative buying rather than a fundamental deterioration in supply.
Producers increasing hedging. Origin sellers are taking advantage of higher prices to lock in sales, adding selling pressure.
Higher exchange margin requirements. ICE significantly increased margin requirements, making futures more expensive to hold and potentially reducing speculative buying.
Robusta supplies remain relatively comfortable. Indonesian exports and Brazilian Conilon continue flowing into the market, limiting support from the Robusta side.
Global supply outlook has not materially changed. Current concerns relate more to timing than to the size of the upcoming crop.